AK-AL, AK-Sen: Stevens Rebounds, Parnell Surges, Young Slides in New Poll

Ivan Moore Research polls the Alaska races (8/30-9/2, likely voters, 8/9-12 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 49 (56)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (39)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

I believe we could call this the “Tom Reynolds effect” of political scandals: Stevens’ numbers took a nosedive immediately after his indictment, but now that the shock is wearing off (and after his primary win), the numbers have readjusted back to a tight race. The good news is, Mark Begich is running a brilliant campaign, and is doing everything right. Let’s just hope that Stevens isn’t acquitted before election day.

And now for the House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 54 (51)

Don Young (R-inc): 37 (41)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 38 (42)

Sean Parnell (R): 49 (46)

The numbers tell you everything you need to know about this race: we better hope that Young survives his primary. The crumb-bum currently leads by 151 votes, but guess what? There are over 25,000 uncounted absentee and provisional ballots still outstanding. This primary isn’t nearly over by any stretch of the imagination — and the electoral fate of Ethan Berkowitz could rest in the balance.

Bonus finding: With Palin on the ticket, Alaska is no longer in play, according to the poll. McCain crushes Obama by a 54-35 margin, up from 47-44 in July.

24 thoughts on “AK-AL, AK-Sen: Stevens Rebounds, Parnell Surges, Young Slides in New Poll”

  3. HAHA

    http://politicalticker.blogs.c…

    Barack Obama’s campaign for president has raised $10 million since Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin spoke Wednesday night, the campaign announced, calling it a “one-day record.”

    Palin, the governor of Alaska, launched harsh attacks on Obama, accusing him of being two-faced and a political lightweight with no significant legislative accomplishments.

    “Coverage of the Palin attacks on the news this evening just pushed us over $10 million,” Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in an e-mail to reporters Wednesday night.

    The Republican Party announced earlier in the day it had raised $1 million in the wake of Palin’s speech.

  4. But Stevens? Doesn’t pretty much the entire Republican establishment hate Palin and she them? How would she effect his numbers? Anyways, the best hope is no verdict before election day.

    As for the House seat, Young better have an army of lawyers in the room watching the SoS count the ballots because 25,000 absentee/contested votes seems way high. I wonder if Parnell in a nod to Obama’s home state took a page out of the Cook County playbook and found some extra votes.

  5. Begich’s lead dropped by 14%… Not good. Though he is still ahead and is raising enough money, that 3% lead right now is under the margin… Hopefully Stevens scandal gets more or press, or else this race might not be the for sure pick up most people were thinking it would be. Though the good news is that even though this race might be sliding away from our favor NC is going in our favor.  

  6. In the Senate race, is Stevens is convicted before November 4, it won’t matter if Palin is on the ballot, he’s done.  If he is acquitted, we’re in big trouble.  I would not be surprised one iota if Stevens and his lawyers suddenly start slowing things down, aware that if the trial is not resolved before the election his chances actually improve.  With the FBI introducing 100 tapped calls of Stevens talking with lobbyists, I don’t know how he wins an acquittal in front of a DC jury.  

    In the House race, Young has to win.  Thankfully for us, Palin will probably not help him much because she has had such a toxic relationship with him.  But if Parnell comes out on top, I fear with Palin on the ballot, our great candidate Berkowitz is in huge trouble.  They are counting the ballots tomorrow.  Young was winning the 5000 absentees counted so far by over 6x his rate in the overall vote (one percent versus 0.16 percent).  Hopefully that rate holds, and in the questioned ballots too.  

  7. We knew this was going to happen, but it’s official.  

    The National Republican Senatorial Committee has canceled more than $2.3 million in television advertising time the committee had reserved in New Mexico, suggesting the party thinks it has little hope of retaining Sen. Pete Domenici’s seat.

    Bahaha.  How long till they cut off Sununu and Schaeffer?

    Ensign has faced other tough financial decisions lately after his call to fellow senators to fully fund the committee’s coffers went largely unheeded. The committee has reserved time in every other competitive state, but financial constraints may force further cutbacks in ad buys.

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

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